DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z MON 10/03 - 06Z TUE 11/03 2003
ISSUED: 09/03 23:35Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN SCOTLAND AND IRELAND

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BRITISH ISLES AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

SYNOPSIS

A WSW-LY ORIENTED POLAR JET IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE AND ITS EXIT REGION OVER SOUTHERN SCANINAVIA. NORTH OF THE POLAR JET A FILLING LOW-PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED NEAR 55N 23W AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF SCOTLAND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVER EASTERN EUROPA A WEAK BUT STRONGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH ITS BASE OVER THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN.

DISCUSSION

...PARTS OF THE BRITISH ISLES...
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN IRELAND AT 06Z. APART FROM OPEN CONVECTION EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY ALSO FORM. GIVEN STRONG (AROUND 40 KT) 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEVERE (50+ KT) WIND GUSTS IN PLACES. SMALL HAIL (<2 CM) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED IF MINI-SUPERCELLS MANAGE TO FORM. DURING THE AFTERNOON THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT BRITAIN.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH IRELAND LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A COMMA. SOME SEVERE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL.

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